Modeling And Forecast Of Residential Electricity Consumption In Nigeria

  • Ojonimi Yusuf Usman Federal Polytechnic Nigeria
  • Kamil Abdullah Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
  • Akmal Nizam Mohammed Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
Keywords: Energy modelling, Energy forecast, Electricity consumption

Abstract

The paper focuses on modeling and forecast electricity consumption in Nigeria’s residential sector using multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the literature review, initially seven key variables were considered for the model. One was eliminated due to the high number of missing observations, while six were used for the process of model variables’ selection. GDPC, ECPC, CR and HHS were eventually chosen as most significant variables and were used in developing a model for the sector. The coefficient of determination and probability values for the model are 0.992 and 2.2 x 10-16, respectively. The model showed considerable capacity for predicting the observed consumption values giving a root mean square error of 0.04. The forecasted values show an annual growth rate of 567.01 GWh. This level of annual increase in energy consumption in the residential sector calls for immediate and comprehensive steps to bolster electricity generation and supply regime in order to effectively accommodate both present and future energy needs, thereby enhancing economic growth and social progress.

Published
2020-02-22